Exponential Wisdom Notes Episode 23 – When to Kill your Idea

Dan Sullivan and Peter Diamandis discuss when your idea reaches the end of the line. 

• The great stretch driver of progress on Earth is experimentation. 
• This is especially true in a modern business. 
• With modern tech, it is easier than ever to experiment. 
• Data driven experimentation allows for continuous optimization of an idea. 
• Hire the best people, but pit them into a culture that promotes experimentation. 
• Recruit > Create Culture > Experiment 
• Jeff Holden – Master experimenter – Chief Product Officer at Uber, 2nd employee at Amazon. 
• Astro Teller – head of Google’s moonshine factory, where they run hundreds of experiments per year. Only a few ever seen. 
• Experimentation is far better than relying on experience or expertise. 
• This podcast is an experiment. 
• Treat everything you do daily as 80% known, 20% possible to learn something new. 
• Test ideas with check writers, not friends or family. 
• Astro Teller:

1.  a great experiment is one that you don’t know the answer to in advance. Otherwise it’s a waste of time and money.
2. A great experiment is one that produces results that you can act upon. If the results don’t change what you do, then why run the experiment? 
3. Run an experiment that is quantifiable. If data not generated, it is an invalid experiment. 

• Great danger for entrepreneurs is to fall in love with your ideas before the marketplace does. 
• Pre mortem – try to kill your ideas early. If your idea is to fail, why? 
• Many people fall for the sunk cost fallacy with their beloved ideas. 
•  If, in your pre-mortem you find a great way to kill the project, then kill it now. And celebrate. Google X does this. 
• Willingness to kill your ideas takes intellectual, emotional, and psychological courage. 
• When Steve Jobs came back to Apple as CEO, he killed 80 percent of their projects. 
• This turned Apple into the most viable company on the planet. 
• Peter Diamandis quote – “Don’t think out of the box, think in a very small box.”
• Peter Diamandis failure – whenever he has gone after get rich quick schemes. Waste of money and time. 
• Chasing the money is a huge mistake should be killed off the bat. 
• Dan Sullivan big failure was Pocket Coach – invested 1 million dollars 20 years ago, and had to kill it because they lost the vision and arbitrarily kept adding technology.  
• When killing a project after data – either be willing to kill it in the visible eye, or launch and test in secret. 
• Uber is constantly running experiments. Hundreds at a time. Have thick skin to run a ton of experiments. 
• Diamandis hiring a head of experimentation to create a culture deeply rooted in experimentation. 
• Crowdsource within your organization. 
• The best companies have a culture of Experimentation. Give people ownership on designing the product. 
• There are many methods, but one mindset for experimentation. 
• Technology and people are a start, but the mindset is what makes success. 
• Be geared to a future bigger than the past.